由于美国微软副社长J Allard力推生产对抗苹果公司的MP3播放器ZUNE进展令人失望，因此，有市场分析人士认为，其主推的另一款产品XBOX360也许将会在年末商战中失利。根据美国市场研究公司Lazard Capital Markets提出的一份分析报告称，微软将不会达成其已经向下更正了一次的2006年度XBOX360的销售目标，而这次的失利，将会给予其主要竞争对手、目前由于产量问题正陷于各种困境的PlayStation 3迎头赶上的机会。
自从推出以来，在最初的4个月里，XBOX360的供应能力未能满足市场需求，全球市场有数百万玩家没有得到他们希望的这台主机。不过，现在消费者对于游戏的热情的减退，将是比生产上的问题所造成的影响更为严重。Lazard Capital Markets公司称：”根据调查结果预测，XBOX360和XBOX、NGC、PS2等上一代游戏主机的销售一样将会下降。“但是该公司认为，SONY的PS3和任天堂的WII等次世代机的销售情况将会比预测的要好。
根据微软的计划，从2005年11月开始，6个月内预计将销售600万台XBOX360。不过，后来微软又下调了这个数字，将其更改为550万台，并称2006年底之前XBOX360的用户将会超过1000万。Lazard Capital Markets公司表示：“目前市场上普遍的看法是XBOX360在北美销量为450万台左右，离原来的目标还有一段距离。”
Analyst Colin Sebastian from Lazard Capital Markets has sent out details of an 'upbeat' analyst meeting with Microsoft's Xbox executive team, during which he notes that the Xbox 360 is benefiting from PS3 and Wii shortages this holiday season.
Sebastian particularly commented: "Management appeared to be upbeat regarding the current state of the business, particularly with progress made in establishing the Xbox 360 as the early leader among next generation consoles, and also with penetration and usage of Xbox Live services."
The analyst continues: "We also believe the Xbox 360 may be benefiting at retail this holiday from short supplies of PS3 and Wii consoles. Recently, Microsoft executives reaffirmed the company’s goal of reaching 10 million Xbox 360 units installed worldwide by the end 2006."
As for hints to the best sellers for Xbox 360 this holiday season: "Management indicated first-party software title Gears of War is selling well, and may be driving some incremental hardware sales. In addition, the title has now overtaken Halo [2] in popularity on Xbox Live. Based on our retail checks, we believe Xbox 360 software overall is strong at retail thus far in the holiday period."
Looking forward, Sebastian has outlined some of the key Xbox 360 titles for next year, noting: "We believe there is a strong lineup of software targeted for release in 2007 on the Xbox 360, including Halo 3, GTA IV, Crackdown, Mass Effect, Bioshock and Splinter Cell 5, among others."
He also notes that the company may be making better in-roads in Europe, after only a moderate start, though the Japanese problem still remains: "North America remains the strongest Xbox 360 market, however Microsoft appears to be making some strides in other geographies, most notably in the U.K. and northern Europe, while we believe sales are still weaker in Japan."
Finally, Microsoft's online strengths are again reaffirmed: "Xbox Live continues to be a significant point of differentiation for Xbox, and we believe Microsoft remains focused on distinguishing the Xbox 360 through a robust online offering, including Arcade, community features, digital downloads/micro-transactions and in-game advertising (through Massive)."
