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标题: [新闻] Apple 3Q12 财报点评，今晚明晨可下载ML [打印本页]

作者: 眼神 时间: 2012-7-25 06:19 标题: Apple 3Q12 财报点评，今晚明晨可下载ML

总体来说财报的结果还是可以，只是从多年以来的超过分析师预期第一次变成了低于分析师预期，所以导致收盘以后股价下挫

主要问题出在iPhone的销量26m逊于预期的36m，而iPad的销量也比预期要低，Mac受到WWDC上的推动，基本达到预期

我斗胆预言新iPhone会在9月中旬左右推出，只有这样，4Q12财季的报告才会好看，否则股价方面管理层的压力会很大

Mountain Lion确认在美国时间25日推出

还有很多Amazing的新产品

其它方面，中国大陆区增长放缓应该在意料之中，基数变大以及没有新产品是主要原因

- Established new all-time quarterly records for iPad sales, and June quarter records for iPhone and Mac sales.
- Year over year growth of Mac of 23%.
- Strong growth in iPad and iPhone sales year over year.
- Sold 4 million Macs. This represents 2% growth year over year, higher than 1% contraction of global PC market.
- Customer response has been excellent for new MacBook Air and Pro models.
- Best quarter ever for US education institution Mac sales.
- Notable large edu sales: Rutherford County, NC -- 6k MacBook Airs. Pueblo, CO district 70 -- all high school students and K-12 staff converting to MacBook Air.
- 3-4 weeks of Mac channel inventory. Below target of 4-5 weeks.
- Mountain Lion comes out tomorrow.

- Sold 6.8 million iPods. Versus 7.5 million last year. Ahead of Apple's internal expectations.
- iPod Touch accounts for more than half of iPods sold.
- Share of mp3 market is higher than 70%. Top selling mp3 player in most countries Apple tracks.
- 4-6 weeks of iPod channel inventory, within targets.
- $1.8 billion from iTunes Store.
- Launched iTunes in 12 new countries.
- 20 million songs.
- Great interest in iTunes U. 14 million downloads of the app. 700 new K-12 schools and districts and 125 colleges enrolled in iTunes U. 750 new courses.

- 26 million iPhones. 20.3 million last year. 28% YoY growth. Ahead of amount we factored into our guidance.
- 250 carriers in over 100 countries.
- Dropped 300k iPhones in channel inventory. 4-6 weeks of inventory.
- Recognized revenue was $16.2 billion, versus $13.3 billion last year. Increase of 22%.
- More than double the iPhones in Fortune 500 from last year.

- 17 million iPads versus 9.2 million last year, up 84%.
- Very strong growth in sales around the world.
- Sold in 97 countries.
- Up 1.2 million units in channel inventory. 4-6 weeks.
- Sales setting new quarterly record for education sales. Sold 1 million iPads to education.
- Sales of iPad 2 were particularly strong to K-12 market.
- Achieved all-time record Mac sales to education, but sold twice as many iPads to US institutions.
- Number of iPads in Fortune 500 has more than tripled in past year.

- App Store in 155 countries. 650k apps, 225k for iPad.
- Surpassed $5.5 billion in payments to developers.
- 150 million iCloud users.

- iOS 6 coming this fall.

- Apple Retail: $4.1 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year. Growth coming from record iPad sales and iPhone sales. 791k Macs, half the Macs sold to customers to new Mac owners.
- 9 new stores. 372 stores total. 123 stores outside US.
- $11.1 million versus $10.8 million revenue per store.
- 80.3 million visitors total. 17,000 visitors per store per week.

- 42.8% gross margin.
- Better than expected commodity, warranty and other costs.
- Offset by strong mix by iPad sales, higher mix of lower priced iPhones, and stronger US dollar.

- $3.4 billion, $378 million in stock based compensation.
- Tax rate of 25.6%.
- Cash: $117.2 billion at end of June quarter. Up $7 billion. $81 billion in cash was offshore.
- $10.2 billion cash flow from operations.

- Board of directors announces dividend of $2.65 per common share.
- Expect to announce record and payment dates concurrently with quarterly earnings announcements going forward.
- $10 billion in stock repurchase beginning next year.

- Expect revenue of $34 billion versus $28.3 billion in 2012 in September quarter. Margin of 38.5%.
- Targeting EPS of $7.55 per share.

- Extremely confident in our strategy.
- Amazing new products in the pipeline.

Q&A

Q: Why is gross margin guidance so low? Been 2 years since been sub-40% gross margin.

A: Down 430 basis points sequentially. Most of this decline is from fall transition, strong US dollar, full quarter of back to school promotion.

Q: Seen spectacular growth in China over past several years. Macro concerns in the market and Asia-Pac growth decelerated from 100+ to 25% growth this quarter.

A: Growth in Asia Pac was 25%. Vast majority in difference in sequential growth rate was the result of greater China. 2/3 of revenue in AsiaPac comes from China. 48% increase year over year. Virtually all of the $2.2 billion sequential revenue decline was due to iPhone sales in greater China. Half of that is attributable to changes in channel inventory not underlying sell-through. Launched iPhone 4S in China last quarter, added China Telecom as second carrier in March. Increased channel inventory over the quarter to meet targets.

Mainly attributable to normal seasonality after very successful iPhone 4S launch. Didn't see large impact that we would associate with weak economy in mainland China. Up 100% year over year in iPhone sales in greater China. Launched new iPad last Friday. Sales did not benefit from new iPad in June quarter in mainland China.

New portables that we announced at WWDC began to ship in China last week. June quarter sales did not benefit from these products. We remain really confident about our plans and are very excited about opportunity in China. Looking forward to incorporating more local services to China.

Q: Thoughts on individual segments?

A: iPhone, we expect year-over-year increase in sales in September. Same for iPad and Mac. Revenue guidance is up 20% year over year. Not expecting economies in Europe, Australia, Brazil or Canada to improve. No obvious evidence of economy impacting sales in China or the US. Reading same things that you are about these economies so we'll see.

Weekly iPhone sales continue to be impacted by rumors and speculation regarding new products. In supply/demand balance. Don't expect new country or carrier additions in the quarter.

Current iPad lineup includes $399 iPad 2, will impact ASP's in September quarter. US dollar has strengthened against most currencies. This should have adverse impact to revenue in these countries in excess of $400 million.

Q: Can you walk us through some of the trends you saw for iPhone demand sequentially in other international regions?

A: Completed iPhone rollout in all countries including China. Got the channel within target inventory range of 4-6 weeks by the end of March. Last quarter, increased sell-in over sell-through by 2.6 million units. Our sell-in was less than sell-through in this quarter. Net change in channel inventory across quarters was 3 million units.

In different geographies, iPhone, US was very strong, running at 47%. Japan was strong at 45%. Greater China was up 66% but Mainland was up more than 100%. Europe did not perform well, essentially flat. Hampered our total results.

Regarding general revenue, within Europe, we see marked difference between countries. UK was solid at 30% growth. France and Greece and Italy were particularly poor. Germany was a single digit positive growth. Eastern Europe was strong compared to Western, but Western drives revenue. Seeing a slowdown in revenue in that area. US and China are not seeing an obvious economic issue.

Q: Mentioned "Fall transition" in the gross margin notes. What's that about? What would you get back in the December quarter? How much is short term?

A: "Fall transition" that I spoke about is driving most of the decline that we see sequentially in gross margin. Not something that we're going to talk about in any level of detail today. We could not be more confident in our new product pipeline.

Q: Rumor and speculation, how much does it hurt sales in the quarter?

A: There's a lot of speculation out there. It's difficult to sort out but I'm fairly convinced that there's an incredible anticipation out there for future products. As you would expect given what we've been able to deliver in the past. I think it's a reasonable amount.

In terms of channel inventory for the current quarter, we put our thinking in the guidance that Peter gave you.

Q: Talk about Mac business? Up 2% year over year -- how much was due to product transition or weak economy?

A: Clear the PC market is weak. Frankly, we believe the primary factor for our lower growth rate in the Mac area is the timing of our portable announcement in the quarter. Less than 3 weeks remaining in the quarter. The year ago compare, we made a transition in the portable area in February. Sold our new lineup for the entire Q3 period.

Prior to WWDC, our weekly Mac sales were running below the prior year. After WWDC, MacBook Pro and MacBook air drove year over year increases in weekly sell-through. They were to the level that got us back into overall positive territory and our 25th sequential quarter beating the PC market. Entered quarter in backlog on Retina MacBook Pro, anticipate doing so next month.

For month of June, our portable share was at 25.5% and record 47% of revenue share in month of June. Would attribute a large amount to what has happened in terms of timing of our portable announcement.

Q: What are your conversations with carriers in terms of pricing subsidies?

A: Generally, I would say that our role is to make the very best smartphone in the world. That has an incredible user experience, far superior to everything else. At the end of the day, the carriers want to provide their customers with what their customers want to buy. The most important thing for us is to continue making the best products in the world. We are deeply committed to doing this and maniacally focused on it.

The total subsidy that they pay is fairly small relative to the monthly payment they collect over a 24-month period. Many tell us that iPhone has several advantages to other smart phones. Churn rates are less. Shared data plans do well with iPhone customers, and are more likely to have a tablet. They value these customers quite a bit. Our engineering teams work with carriers to find the most efficiently ways to deal with data -- we feel that we are the most efficient smartphones on the market for those in an app-rich ecosystem. Will focus on making the best product and carriers will be very motivated to provide it to their customers.

Q: You were above expectations relative to guidance on iPhone. Above on iPod. Said you were thrilled with iPad, but EPS came in 5-6% above guidance. Perhaps you can help us illustrate where you were disappointed on guidance?

A: Given what's going on around us, we're happy with our quarter. Sales of each of our products did exceed what we factored into guidance. Especially true with iPad. Revenue grew by $6.5 billion year over year. Some things did impact us during the quarter. The economy in Europe is not doing well. Saw some economic impact in natural resource space economies, including Australia, Brazil and Canada. Reading same rumors and speculation that you are -- this caused a pause in some purchases. Delay in Ivy Bridge impacted sales in April and May. Saw large increase in Mac sales after WWDC. Did not get benefit of launching new iPad or new portables in China. Additional strengthening on the dollar. These impacted the quarter and we're very happy with how business is performing and excited with new product pipeline.

Q: Talk a little about smartphone growth in emerging markets? Maybe 70% of smartphones in China and emerging countries are under $300 or $200. Do you agree with that market characterization? Does that limit your ability to gain share in a marketplace where 70% of the units are in a price point that you don't play in? At what point does that math prevent you from gaining share?

A: The specific data you've quoted doesn't map to what I've seen. We've been very focused on China because we see it as an enormous opportunity for us. We're very pleased that we were able to grow our iPhone sales over 100% in mainland China last quarter. Firmly believe that people in emerging markets want great products just like in developed markets. We're going to stick to our knitting and make the best products. If we do that, we've got a very, very good business ahead of us. That's what we're doing.

Q: The share objective in and of itself is not an explicit one? That's the consequence of making good products? Or is that an explicit objective?

A: Across everything that we make, the goal is to make the very best product. That's more important and overshadows all over things. By doing that, we will have a great business. Our results today show that.

Q: Is the channel inventory commentary all on a look-forward basis?

A: The weeks that we quote are forward looking because inventory is in the channel for forward sales.

Q: The comments about the iPad being just in target at 4-6 weeks would suggest a slowdown in sales.

A: The channel inventory is only for the indirect channel. It is not used to support direct sales -- Apple Retail, Apple Online, Apple Education. I don't want to give you specific guidance on iPad sales but it's important to keep that in mind. That's the case with all products. I know that some companies refer to their channel inventory in terms of growth sales. We don't do that.

Q: There is some higher quality competition for the iPad now. What do you think about pricing?

A: iPad 2 did very well, new iPad is more popular now. iPad 2 did very well in K-12 area, sold about a million units for the quarter. We have been very aggressive in the space and that won't change. We've seen many different tablets come to market over the last year and I have yet to see any of them gain a level of traction. We have 225k apps optimized for iPad. Incredible experience on iPad. Most customers feel that they aren't looking for a tablet, they're looking for an iPad. We will keep innovating in the space and we will keep a very strong business going forward.

It took us more than twice as long to sell this many iPads as iPods, and a third less time on iPad than iPhone. We feel very good about it.

Q: Can you talk a little more about segments that have been driving iPad?

A: Triple digit growth rates in many geographies. Generally speaking, international markets in aggregate are extremely strong -- in triple digits. US is a big lower, but important to keep in mind that the US is on a faster adoption curve with iPad. We're thrilled with numbers everywhere. Latin America is tripling. Growth out of countries that border on being shocking in terms of growth rate. We would not have dreamed of shipping 17 million last quarter so we feel very good about it.

Q: Did you give an Apple TV number and updated thoughts?

A: Sold 1.3 million last quarter, up more than 170% year over year. Brings fiscal year to 4 million units. This is pretty incredible. Still at a level that we would call a "hobby" -- continue to pull the string to see where it takes us. Not one to keep around projects that we don't believe in. Lot of people here that believe in Apple TV. Continue to invest.

Q: Don't do hobbies to be hobbies -- do it to make something bigger?

A: We do it because we think it'll leave us somewhere. We'll see. 4 million isn't a small number and there are a lot of believers in it.

Q: iPad and iPhone ASP's seem to have declined more this quarter than previous quarters. What is this due to?

A: Don't talk too much about ASP but, iPhone: down due to higher mix of lower price models and stronger US dollar. Sequentially and year over year. Regarding mix, believe this was driven by new product rumors, economic conditions especially in Europe, and a change in inventory by model. For iPad, it was down more year over year than sequentially. YoY decrease is attributable to higher mix of lower priced models, reduced price of iPad 2 to $399, expanded distribution with higher mix of indirect sales versus last year, and US dollar.

Q: Talked about hobbies... look at Passbook -- is it possible that Apple will have a bigger role in a digital wallet?

A: Passbook in general is a key feature -- all of us have found that we were getting many passes and tickets that were scattered all over the iPhone in different apps. Passbook does an incredible job of pulling all of those to one place. It's an important feature of iOS 6 and I wouldn't want to speculate about where it might take us.

作者: iceliking 时间: 2012-7-25 07:01

posted by wap, platform: iOS

厨子上台一年，对于竞争对手疯狂进攻被动防守，毫无新意，完全没有当年教主风范，再过几年还真不好说

作者: pangeng 时间: 2012-7-25 11:53

苹果现在好多自己东西都不关心。
ITOUCH IMAC, MACMINI被冷了有一阵了。
而且感觉发展方向开始模糊。

作者: 神奇 时间: 2012-7-25 11:55

土鳖的问一句，ML要怎么升？直接在store里购买？

作者: beterhans 时间: 2012-7-25 12:04

引用:

原帖由神奇于 2012-7-25 11:55 发表
土鳖的问一句，ML要怎么升？直接在store里购买？

store 里购买

作者: 蚁力神 时间: 2012-7-25 12:08

直接由狮子升级的话会不会有垃圾残留什么的问题，我不想再格硬盘装，但又是完美主义+强迫症

作者: djm 时间: 2012-7-25 12:16

明早ML

作者: beterhans 时间: 2012-7-25 12:21

引用:

原帖由 蚁力神 于 2012-7-25 12:08 发表
直接由狮子升级的话会不会有垃圾残留什么的问题，我不想再格硬盘装，但又是完美主义+强迫症

我打算全新安装. 反正 time machine 的硬盘还有空间

作者: finalvesta 时间: 2012-7-25 12:26

小白搭车问下，老婆09年买的MBP，系统是10.5.8，可以直接升到ML吗？还是要先10.6 10.7 再ML？

作者: trashman 时间: 2012-7-25 12:34

我大苹果教危已
掌教左使再无法使各大法王同心同德，同仇敌忾，被各大门派围剿于光明顶为期不远

作者: leica 时间: 2012-7-25 13:27

09年的是374那一代么？偶家374直接点dmg升级，没有任何毒副作用，现在到了ML的GM版本，妥妥的爽爽的。正式版若和GM一样的MD5的话，那还懒得再折腾了呢

作者: 神奇 时间: 2012-7-25 13:38

还有不花钱的方法？

作者: 城里的月光 时间: 2012-7-25 13:39

我今早给苹果客服打电话询问air维修的问题，顺便问了问ML升级的问题。我说能不能给我修好之后直接在店里给我升级，客服说只能store升级

作者: FoxfoO 时间: 2012-7-25 14:35

那就买吧~~~反正也没多少钱~~~

作者: 眼神 时间: 2012-7-25 14:56

posted by wap, platform: iPhone

引用:

原帖由 @finalvesta 于 2012-7-25 12:26 发表
小白搭车问下，老婆09年买的MBP，系统是10.5.8，可以直接升到ML吗？还是要先10.6 10.7 再ML？

不可以，必须至少10.6

作者: fjamesr 时间: 2012-7-25 15:59

ml能干净重装么？就是格式化磁盘后用移动硬盘做镜像

作者: wpang 时间: 2012-7-25 16:02

引用:

原帖由 fjamesr 于 2012-7-25 15:59 发表
ml能干净重装么？就是格式化磁盘后用移动硬盘做镜像

能

作者: abrina 时间: 2012-7-25 16:30

问下，如果升了ML，那之前的软件，还有虚拟机软件还能用吗？

作者: wpang 时间: 2012-7-25 16:48

引用:

原帖由 abrina 于 2012-7-25 16:30 发表
问下，如果升了ML，那之前的软件，还有虚拟机软件还能用吗？

升级安装没有兼容性问题就啥都不影响。VM和PD7的最新版本都支持ML了

作者: zztg 时间: 2012-7-25 17:01

引用:

原帖由 蚁力神 于 2012-7-25 12:08 发表
直接由狮子升级的话会不会有垃圾残留什么的问题，我不想再格硬盘装，但又是完美主义+强迫症

强迫症当然革盘装....

作者: mayokaze 时间: 2012-7-25 17:24

我倒觉得财报很健康
iphone和Mac的疲软与供货和产品发布周期有关，而且增长幅度也并不小，只是没有达到分析师预期
iPad和apple TV涨势凶猛
最重要的是作为根本的iTunes store营收占比越来越大，已经倍杀iPod部门了，要知道两个季度前才刚刚赶上而已

作者: hsu 时间: 2012-7-25 17:46

不是都说MAC系统不需要重装么
直接覆盖安装即可

作者: sumeru 时间: 2012-7-25 18:11

楼主这非官方PR做的不错啊

作者: leica 时间: 2012-7-25 19:34

覆盖直接升级方便，但是，格盘再装更干净一点。偶硬盘空间不够，就直接升级算了。

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